The Force Awakens Scorecard, Pt. 2

So we looked at my predictions for the plot yesterday, now let’s see how I did with the numbers:

  1. "I expect The Force Awakens to have an opening weekend gross of $215 Million. The crazy thing? This estimate is conservative." Conservative was an understatement. I was short by almost $33 Million.
  2. "I also expect The Force Awakens to beat Avatar’s domestic box office gross of $760.5 Million, and to come in closer to $800 Million." On Wednesday, The Force Awakens passed Avatar’s domestic gross, coming in at $764 Million. What once was decried as a fanboy fantasy, $1 Billion domestic now falls into the realm of plausibility. This will all depend on how long its legs are.
  3. "I don’t think that The Force Awakens will beat Avatar’s worldwide gross numbers ($2.8 Billion), but I do think it has a good shot of taking number two away from Titanic ($2.2 Billion)." I think this one will end up holding true. While The Force Awakens is redefining ‘box office juggernaut’ in North America and Europe, it isn’t finding the same success everywhere worldwide. As of right now, the worldwide gross is split 49/51 domestic/foreign. Other films that grossed over $1 Billion worldwide would see something closer to a 40/60 domestic/foreign split. The real question is China. It opens in Chinese theaters this weekend, but it looks like The Force Awakens will receive the same tepid response the Original Trilogy received when Disney released the films in China last year. If The Force Awakens flops hard in China, Titanic has a good chance of retaining the #2 position. If it only does okay in China, I think we’ll be reading headlines about The Force Awakens becoming #2 worldwide by the end of February.

As of right now, I’m 0 for 2, and have a shot of getting 1 out 3 right. The Force Awakens has been fascinating to track, and we probably aren’t even at the halfway point of its run.